My tickets are behind the visiting goalie so I can watch the Alex's in action, so I had only one period to observe the D close up. The Alex's are clearly ramping up but are not yet in full playing from. Green was definitely impressive, and was constantly opening up the ice for the offense. Particularly impressive was a powerplay shift where the Russians were all on the ice with laser precision passing. I noticed Backstrom has a pretty serious problem in terms of his size and being able to stay on the puck. He was not tossed around like Semin is but it is clear that he will be even better once he matures and gains some more bulk.
Though he let in two goals, Ward made some amazing saves and definitely kept the Canes in the game. Ward gets back into position with amazing speed and his efforts to slim down and get faster over the sumer after a marginal year last year have paid off.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
HD Extravaganza and Home Whites
Went to the game last night and the new scoreboard is impressive. Even the clock and the scoring data is digital. So clear and sharp it is actually a little annoying, but a nice problem to have. The advertising is not up on the boards yet, which gives the feel of a game from the early 80's.
I have heard two separate statements about home and away uniforms. For whatever reason, the Caps were wearing their white jerseys last night. The alleged road uniforms look sharp with the blue shorts, that is for sure.
Not a big crowd but not bad. Both Goat, the incredibly loud guy Goat and the horn guy were there, whic is no surprise.
I have heard two separate statements about home and away uniforms. For whatever reason, the Caps were wearing their white jerseys last night. The alleged road uniforms look sharp with the blue shorts, that is for sure.
Not a big crowd but not bad. Both Goat, the incredibly loud guy Goat and the horn guy were there, whic is no surprise.
Monday, September 3, 2007
Varlamov's Career Over Before Starting
The message board sophisticates have spoken and Varlamov is done. GMGM should probably trade him now while there is still some value, maybe a couple of 7th rounders in '15. For those apparently unaware of Varlamov's stellar performance in the RSL, it seems better to judge Varlamov on a 3 games instead. Let's review some facts before we trade Varlamov:
1. Varlamov is playing behind a defensively challenged Russian team.
2. That is really saying something given the lack of interest in playing defense in Russia.
3. Varlamov is playing against the best Junior team on the planet.
What this needs to be viewed as is a great learning experience. Varlamov is learning how to deal with a meltdown. Also he has some technical issues to work, which are also a good thing, because itshows that he has come to this point on raw talent and has tremedous upside. He is young, the whole point is for him to get all of these problems out of the way for Russia, Hershey, his RSL team, whatever, as long as it doesn't happen for the Capitals.
Let's give the kid, and he is a kid, a break.
1. Varlamov is playing behind a defensively challenged Russian team.
2. That is really saying something given the lack of interest in playing defense in Russia.
3. Varlamov is playing against the best Junior team on the planet.
What this needs to be viewed as is a great learning experience. Varlamov is learning how to deal with a meltdown. Also he has some technical issues to work, which are also a good thing, because itshows that he has come to this point on raw talent and has tremedous upside. He is young, the whole point is for him to get all of these problems out of the way for Russia, Hershey, his RSL team, whatever, as long as it doesn't happen for the Capitals.
Let's give the kid, and he is a kid, a break.
HF Rates the Caps Prospects
Hockey's Future just published their top 20 rankings for the Washington Capitals today. Backstrom, Alzer, Fehr were the top 3. The surpise was Keith Seabrook being rated ahead of Jeff Schultz. Keep in mind HF considers upside in their ratings so Schultz may still be the more NHL ready of the two.
Would Varlamov be rated over Neuvirth if the analyst had watched the latest game in the Super Series?
Would Varlamov be rated over Neuvirth if the analyst had watched the latest game in the Super Series?
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Is Olie a Playoff Goalie?
For those of you too impatient to run through statistics or read my methodology to come this conclusion: The answer is yes.
Alan Ryder, (His website, Hockey Analytics, is here) the closest thing to a Sabermetrics expert for hockey around, wrote a great article this past April about playoff goaltending that got me thinking about Olie and the playoffs, given that the Caps have a legitimate chance this year.
Ryder has explored whether there really is such a thing as a playoff goalie, and the stats pretty much back him up. Ryder looked at the two Stanley Cup finalists for the past fifteen years and found that the goaltender of the Cup winning team saw a .019 improvement from his career regular season SV% to his Cup winning playoff performance. In other words, as Ryder points out, they got “hot” for the playoffs beyond the trend of steady performce year after year in the regular season.
For the runners-up there was an average of a .009 improvement in playoff performance over career SV%, but there were 5 goalies out of 15 years that underperformed their career numbers and their teams paid the price. Olie was not one of the 5.
Some quick notes before I explain the numbers:
SV% is the only stat a goalie truly owns, unlike GAA, which really is an indicator of defensive unit as a whole. With SV% it doesn’t matter what the defense did, the goalie either stopped whatever came at him or he didn’t, period.
To refine the data a little bit I used Kolzig’s numbers from 1994 to the present for the NHL only.
Unfortunately it has been awhile since the Caps made the playoffs so there is a little less clarity for this analysis than for most of the other teams in the league. Still the .910 SV% from last year is comforting.
So here is the verdict:
From 1994 to now Olie’s average regular season SV% is .906. and his average playoff SV% .918 a .012 improvement from regular seaon to playoffs.
On average, the Stanley Cup winning goaltender saw a single season improvement of .019 from career and regular season SV% to playoff SV% in what we could call the “hot streak percent."
With an improvement of .012 in the playoffs since 94, Kolzig comes alive in the playoffs and wouldn’t need that great an improvement ( only .001) in his career playoff SV% to put him in that statistical band that helps lead a team to the Cup.
Let’s just hope the Caps can get him there.
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
Development Camp Goaltending Report
Made it to the last day of development camp at Kettler on Saturday and have some notes about the Goaltenders there. AS a quick aside, in the final period there was a rash of puck dinging masks that I have never seen before at such a rate IN MY LIFE. All that plus a collar bone shot on Varlamov, fellow you goalies you feel that pain.
Before I begin I want to make two points:
1. I have some experience as a goaltender.
2. I had one scrimmage to look at these guys, my observations are far from an airtight case against them. I will point out however, that conversations with the Caps faithful who observed every scrimmage found my observations to be pretty much in line with theirs. Still, one scrimmage is just speculation.
I sat at one end of the ice to observe Varlamov initially, who was playing for the Blue team. I had a poor view of Neuvirth as a result.
Varlamov:
At one point there was a video of Varlamov from Central Scouting that was posted on the Washington Capitals Message Board. Varlamov looked like a crab and had a very bizarre playing style. Drafting him made sense to me, some easy fixes in his technique mixed with his raw ability could lead to some spectacular results. Well, the “crabby” crouching too low was completely gone, he either worked that kink out since being drafted or was playing hurt of something in that scouting video.
The good:
Varlamov looked good and made some very acrobatic saves. He will even drop the paddle and flop on the ice in a more controlled Hasek-like style. With great numbers last season in the top Russian league and an entertaining style, he is a great future goaltender who will put up good numbers and wow the crowds.
The bad:
Varlamov looked very tentative in the crease and did not come out of the net far enough. Considering he was in his 4th or 5th day on a smaller NHL size rink, with the greater speed and closer shooting that entails, I find that understandable. Varlamov needs to play in North America (assuming there is starting room for him somewhere) to adjust to the smaller rink. If Varlamov has to go, at least he will be in a ling with a lot of offense and not much of a defensive mindset, which means he will have a lot of work. If he were going back to Sweden I would be very concerned given the more defense minded games the Swedes play which hides a goalie’s shortcomings rather than exposes them.
Neuvirth:
The good:
I could not see him very well and focused my attention on Varlamov. As a result I don’t have a lot to add, unfortunately. A lot of people said that he had outperformed Varlomov over the past few days and he seemed very solid. I would point out that he should outperform Varlomov, given his time adapting the North American rinks playing Canadian Junior.
The bad,
I didn’t really see him, can’t beat on a player with secondhand observations, so I won’t.
Darren Machesney,
The good
Machesney had great reaction time. He seemed to be playing the angles well and wasn’t required to do much, having been in good position. I think he played well, but has had a bit more development time than Varlamov or Neuvirth and perhaps would have appeared more dominant. I didn’t track save percentage or anything and may be giving Machesney a bad rap.
The bad
I don’t think I saw enogh to say anything bad about the guy. Perhaps a reader can chime in about Machesney in SC or Hershey this last year…..
Dan Dunn
The good:
Dunn is very young and big. Really big. Karri Lehtonen big. Technique can be learned and the Caps can see if the NBA maxim “you can’t teach size” applies to prospective NHL netminders as well.
The bad:
Dunn is an uncoordinated Karri Lehtonen. His technique is atrocious, the mitt of his glove hand is always square to the boards rather than the shooter. He is so tall his 5 hole looks like a roadside caution triangle. I am worried that he will be forced to cheat to close his 5 hole and will pay big time as he plays with more talented players. Still, a great gamble for a late round pick that may be a tradeable asset or a back up perhaps.
Justin Mrazek:
The good:
I can’t beat on the guy at all, he seemed pretty solid. It kills me I missed the drills where I could get a better view of all of these guys technical skills but work tragically interfered with hockey.
The bad:
Was not looking terribly bad. He has some size and seemed to do pretty well.
Before I begin I want to make two points:
1. I have some experience as a goaltender.
2. I had one scrimmage to look at these guys, my observations are far from an airtight case against them. I will point out however, that conversations with the Caps faithful who observed every scrimmage found my observations to be pretty much in line with theirs. Still, one scrimmage is just speculation.
I sat at one end of the ice to observe Varlamov initially, who was playing for the Blue team. I had a poor view of Neuvirth as a result.
Varlamov:
At one point there was a video of Varlamov from Central Scouting that was posted on the Washington Capitals Message Board. Varlamov looked like a crab and had a very bizarre playing style. Drafting him made sense to me, some easy fixes in his technique mixed with his raw ability could lead to some spectacular results. Well, the “crabby” crouching too low was completely gone, he either worked that kink out since being drafted or was playing hurt of something in that scouting video.
The good:
Varlamov looked good and made some very acrobatic saves. He will even drop the paddle and flop on the ice in a more controlled Hasek-like style. With great numbers last season in the top Russian league and an entertaining style, he is a great future goaltender who will put up good numbers and wow the crowds.
The bad:
Varlamov looked very tentative in the crease and did not come out of the net far enough. Considering he was in his 4th or 5th day on a smaller NHL size rink, with the greater speed and closer shooting that entails, I find that understandable. Varlamov needs to play in North America (assuming there is starting room for him somewhere) to adjust to the smaller rink. If Varlamov has to go, at least he will be in a ling with a lot of offense and not much of a defensive mindset, which means he will have a lot of work. If he were going back to Sweden I would be very concerned given the more defense minded games the Swedes play which hides a goalie’s shortcomings rather than exposes them.
Neuvirth:
The good:
I could not see him very well and focused my attention on Varlamov. As a result I don’t have a lot to add, unfortunately. A lot of people said that he had outperformed Varlomov over the past few days and he seemed very solid. I would point out that he should outperform Varlomov, given his time adapting the North American rinks playing Canadian Junior.
The bad,
I didn’t really see him, can’t beat on a player with secondhand observations, so I won’t.
Darren Machesney,
The good
Machesney had great reaction time. He seemed to be playing the angles well and wasn’t required to do much, having been in good position. I think he played well, but has had a bit more development time than Varlamov or Neuvirth and perhaps would have appeared more dominant. I didn’t track save percentage or anything and may be giving Machesney a bad rap.
The bad
I don’t think I saw enogh to say anything bad about the guy. Perhaps a reader can chime in about Machesney in SC or Hershey this last year…..
Dan Dunn
The good:
Dunn is very young and big. Really big. Karri Lehtonen big. Technique can be learned and the Caps can see if the NBA maxim “you can’t teach size” applies to prospective NHL netminders as well.
The bad:
Dunn is an uncoordinated Karri Lehtonen. His technique is atrocious, the mitt of his glove hand is always square to the boards rather than the shooter. He is so tall his 5 hole looks like a roadside caution triangle. I am worried that he will be forced to cheat to close his 5 hole and will pay big time as he plays with more talented players. Still, a great gamble for a late round pick that may be a tradeable asset or a back up perhaps.
Justin Mrazek:
The good:
I can’t beat on the guy at all, he seemed pretty solid. It kills me I missed the drills where I could get a better view of all of these guys technical skills but work tragically interfered with hockey.
The bad:
Was not looking terribly bad. He has some size and seemed to do pretty well.
Friday, June 8, 2007
Why not more of an effort in Richmond?
Interesting story from the Richmond press about the lack of marketing DC sports team do in Richmond. I appreciate that the Yankees up in Balitmore are more likely to be hockey friendly but there are a number of teams that do well further south. Can it really hurt to try to get a few more peple from Richmond to make treks up for games. Given the few number of games and the fact they are virutalluy all on the weekend, the Redsjkins analogy is not quite fair but why not a special 10 game weekend package or something specially discounted for people in Centrral Virginia?
Ok, So Alexei Yashin is Russian for Ryan Leaf, but....
On vacation in Europe right now but couldn't help notice the Yashin buy out. IF the Caps have trouble landing talent in FA what about a one year deal for Yashin? I am sure he could be signed for cheap, unless he heads to Switzerland or somewhere to play becuase he his supermodel wife wants a glamorous location. He is at least a 20 goal scorer, I'd pay a million or two a year for that, assuming he wants to rehabilitate himself. If he has an attitude put him on waivers, no one would claim him in such a case and the million or two will not count against the cap. While not much of a deal for most of the teams in the league, this could be cheap way to gain some additional offense. The gamble here is the attitude problem Yashin has. All in all, perhaps a risk worth taking.
Saturday, May 12, 2007
Jersey Rumors. Maybe a hint about the new colors?
A number of mock up jerseys have been posted to websites purporting to be the new Caps jersey, which remains a closely guarded secret. While virtually all of the jersey pictures have been de-bunked, one jersey in particular may provide a hint as to the new colors, though likely little else. Note: My basis for this is not unfounded, I received the following info back in December from a Caps marketing rep I spoke with during a game.
The Jersey Story:
Apparently the Caps explored a new jersey option before this season. There had a number of jersey designs considered, and the Caps used focus groups made up of long time season ticket holders. None of the designs were very popular, and as a result the team decided to wait for new jersey’s. I asked the marketing rep about the colors, and I was told the Red, White and Blue were coming back but it would be a darker set of colors that would be reminiscent of the Colorado Avalanche or something more “stylized” then the old colors. The following MOCK UP NOT REAL photo matches the color descriptions:
These are purported to be airbrushed replicas of All Start jerseys, but where did the logo come from?
Below is a mock up that came from the Caps message boards and has been making the rounds for some time as a possible jersey. While this may have been one of the designs (I don’t know) I can debunk this one easily, since the NHL is no longer going to have third jersey designs for next year.
The Jersey Story:
Apparently the Caps explored a new jersey option before this season. There had a number of jersey designs considered, and the Caps used focus groups made up of long time season ticket holders. None of the designs were very popular, and as a result the team decided to wait for new jersey’s. I asked the marketing rep about the colors, and I was told the Red, White and Blue were coming back but it would be a darker set of colors that would be reminiscent of the Colorado Avalanche or something more “stylized” then the old colors. The following MOCK UP NOT REAL photo matches the color descriptions:
These are purported to be airbrushed replicas of All Start jerseys, but where did the logo come from?
Below is a mock up that came from the Caps message boards and has been making the rounds for some time as a possible jersey. While this may have been one of the designs (I don’t know) I can debunk this one easily, since the NHL is no longer going to have third jersey designs for next year.
Thursday, April 26, 2007
Goaltending Prospect Varlamov Still Looking Good
Semen Varlamov had a great year with his team, Lokamotiv Yaroslavl. Eurohockey.net rated Varlamov as “undoubtedly” the best rookie goaltender of the 07/07 season. Brought in to back up former national team goaltender Egor Podomatsky, the 19 year old ended up starting 33 games, earning a 2.17 GAA. I am not a big fan of GAA, since it does not really measure a goalie’s ability as much as it measures the defense’s ability to block or reduce shots on goal, but that is all I can find.
On the bad side, goaltending in Russia is notoriously weak, and the larger ice surfaces make for a slightly different game than in North America. Varlamov has an unusual style that will need work. His stance is awkward and inefficient and he has a tendency to get up with the wrong foot, but technique can be acquired, and his speed and skill makes up for his technical flaws.
The good news is that playing in RSL is another step for Varlamov, having played for a lower division team last year. Varlamov dominates at every level he seems to play at, from Junios to World Juniors from Russian farm league to the Super League, he is clearly the best Russian goaltending orospect to come along in quite awhile. Even his flaws are pretty good, as the major knocks I have read regarding Varlamov are related to technique, which means he can greatly improve once he comes to North America.
Apparently, he is still vying for a spot on the World Championship roster, but I can’t seem to find anything on this to confirm other than a mention by Mike Vogel on the Capital’s Report podcast. Haven’t heard yesterday’s podcast but I will email a question on Varlamov next week for sure if I can’t find anything. Don’t expect him to take anything away from Khabibulin, but he may start some of the soft games perhaps.
Things look promising, but even if Kolzig can last 3 more years, I don’t know if Varlamov will be ready to step in to the NHL as a 23 year old netminder. I will write an article on bridging the gap between Kolzig and Varlamov or Neuvirth in another installment. Be patient and be wary, there was that one goaltending prospect in the early 90’s who had the same name (with different spelling) as a very famous comedian/movie star who didn’t turn out so hot after he won a Vezina trophy.
On the bad side, goaltending in Russia is notoriously weak, and the larger ice surfaces make for a slightly different game than in North America. Varlamov has an unusual style that will need work. His stance is awkward and inefficient and he has a tendency to get up with the wrong foot, but technique can be acquired, and his speed and skill makes up for his technical flaws.
The good news is that playing in RSL is another step for Varlamov, having played for a lower division team last year. Varlamov dominates at every level he seems to play at, from Junios to World Juniors from Russian farm league to the Super League, he is clearly the best Russian goaltending orospect to come along in quite awhile. Even his flaws are pretty good, as the major knocks I have read regarding Varlamov are related to technique, which means he can greatly improve once he comes to North America.
Apparently, he is still vying for a spot on the World Championship roster, but I can’t seem to find anything on this to confirm other than a mention by Mike Vogel on the Capital’s Report podcast. Haven’t heard yesterday’s podcast but I will email a question on Varlamov next week for sure if I can’t find anything. Don’t expect him to take anything away from Khabibulin, but he may start some of the soft games perhaps.
Things look promising, but even if Kolzig can last 3 more years, I don’t know if Varlamov will be ready to step in to the NHL as a 23 year old netminder. I will write an article on bridging the gap between Kolzig and Varlamov or Neuvirth in another installment. Be patient and be wary, there was that one goaltending prospect in the early 90’s who had the same name (with different spelling) as a very famous comedian/movie star who didn’t turn out so hot after he won a Vezina trophy.
Friday, April 20, 2007
Is "Alexander Semin" Russian for "Ryan Leaf"?
Maybe not a fair analogy since Semin did deliver this season, but give me a break. First Semin throws a puck during a hissy fit during the Tampa Bay game and now he has been kicked off the Russian National team for obstinately refusing to show up to training camp on time. His behavior does not only hurt himself however. There were some fireworks after his temper tantum in the Caps locker room as some of the veterans apprently laid into both Alexanders for their decreased effort as they played out the string. Whatever was said worked for at least one of them though, Ovechkin picked up his play for the remiander of the season at the apparent cost of little more than a smashed iPOD and stick.
Check out this article on the bewildering Semin from the Washington Times. It is a bit older and the writer ponders how Semin will do for Team Russia. Here is a quote from Semin:
"I am hoping to play in the world championships first, and then I am just going to go home and relax. I don't really have any big plans for the summer. The first thing in mind is the world championships though. It is an honor to play for the team, especially since it is in Moscow this year. It is very important."
Uh-huh. I hope Semin continues to mature and is not a Russian Jagr. Time will tell.
Check out this article on the bewildering Semin from the Washington Times. It is a bit older and the writer ponders how Semin will do for Team Russia. Here is a quote from Semin:
"I am hoping to play in the world championships first, and then I am just going to go home and relax. I don't really have any big plans for the summer. The first thing in mind is the world championships though. It is an honor to play for the team, especially since it is in Moscow this year. It is very important."
Uh-huh. I hope Semin continues to mature and is not a Russian Jagr. Time will tell.
Sunday, April 15, 2007
Change the Draft and Draft Lottery Date
What is the NHL thinking in terms of dates for the lottery and the draft? The draft lottery is exciting when there is no other hockey to watch or discuss, not a couple of days before the playoffs. Why not hold the lottery after the Stanley Cup Final to generate a little more excitement? Furthermore, why not push the draft back a few weeks as well? Nothing is happening in July besides baseball, the draft could get lot more attention by default if they pushed it back. If league officials can remove the center redline to speed up the game they certainly can change some dates to help marketing.
Lottery Pick and a Prospect for a Veteran?
Japer's Rink (bottom of the page) has a great story gleaned from Spector's. I won't call this a rumor per se, but it is certainly an interesting thought. Eminger and a lottery pick would be very appealing and is a far more cost-effective means of acquiring some talent versus the free agent route, especially with Datsyuk off the market. I have my doubts about giving up so early on Eminger though, but Green or Schultz would be great trade options as well. With Ted Leonsis repeatedly mentioning in the press that the team will be improved over the summer through the trade route along with free agency, it makes sense.
Friday, April 13, 2007
Some Great Marketing by the Caps
The Caps have teamed with a company to create a Caps themed Firefox browser. Apparently this is the first in pro sports. At first I questioned the timing, but it dawned on me that this was perhaps timed with the beginning of a playoff run. I just hope the browser will move to the team's new colors when they are announced later in the summer. Read the press release and find the link to download the browser here:
Sunday, April 8, 2007
Caps Ready to Do Some Shopping
http://www.examiner.com/a-662728~Capitals_ready_to_do_some_offseason_shopping.html
Check out the link above.
My favorite quote:
This is the year, owner Ted Leonsis said, "that we'll be playing offense in the off season."
It is definitely time. After evaluating what was in the system, it is time to bring in outside help. The article credits GM George McPhee with the Caps Stanley Cup run, he took over the team that year, he did not build it, he inherited it.
Check out the link above.
My favorite quote:
This is the year, owner Ted Leonsis said, "that we'll be playing offense in the off season."
It is definitely time. After evaluating what was in the system, it is time to bring in outside help. The article credits GM George McPhee with the Caps Stanley Cup run, he took over the team that year, he did not build it, he inherited it.
Inaugural Posting
Welcome to the inaugural posting of the Washington Goalpost. It seems apropos to begin this blog the day after a frustrating Caps season that has ended with the prospects of a top 3 or 4 pick and some serious change in store for the Capitals. I have followed the Caps for about a decade and played goaltender as a kid and in high school in Southern California. Aside from being a fan of the game I have two serious interests in hockey:
1. Goaltending
2. Hockey Business (Especially Marketing)
1. Goaltending
2. Hockey Business (Especially Marketing)
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